The climate is changing, and while we can globally observe a temperature increase, the Arctic is warming at double that pace (the Arctic warmed by about 2-3°C in the last 60 years). However, this temperature increase is just a response of the climate to other processes that are going on in our atmosphere. The temperature increase can be related, for example, to an increase of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, as greenhouse gases “trap” heat in the atmosphere (similar to a real greenhouse). As a response to the temperature increase in the Arctic, the sea ice is also observed to be declining (by as much as 12% per decade since we started to observe sea ice with satellites in 1979). In short, many of the processes we are observing in the atmosphere are just a response to other processes that are happening at the same time (or even earlier in time, as sometimes the atmosphere tends to react slowly to changes). In this example, increased greenhouse gases lead to temperature increases, which lead to Arctic sea ice melt.
However, one should not think that the ice extent is continually lower year after year. Some years show a higher/lower ice extent than others. For example, the summer of 2007 and 2012 were years with an extremely low sea-ice extent, while the years 2008 to 2011 showed an extent larger than these other two years. In my research, I am trying to investigate which processes in the atmosphere are responsible for such variability in the sea-ice extent. So I use data from climate models combined with observational data. Why do we have years that show a higher/lower sea-ice extent than others? Can we attribute this to atmospheric processes? And if so, which processes are responsible, and to what extent (thinking about the cause and effect)? Some processes to think about, for example, are the effect of clouds and greenhouse gases in the Arctic in different seasons, changes in the transport of heat into the Arctic due to storms originating in lower latitudes or other large-scale weather systems, the effect of strong winds on the sea ice, and many others…
– Marie Kapsch